Home / Indexes / AI Business & Economics / AI Market Forecast

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

AI Business & Economics · Index

AI Market Forecast 2026–2030

What every major forecaster sees for AI through 2030 — spending, jobs, energy and GDP impact. All figures are projections, clearly attributed and linked to their source.

By The AI Index · Updated Jun 20, 2026 · 8 min read · 10 sourced figures

Note on forecasts: predictions are inherently uncertain and vary widely by methodology. Every figure here is labeled as a forecast/projection and linked to its source so you can review the assumptions.

The forecast landscape

Every major forecaster sees AI as the defining economic story of the next five years — with infrastructure spend exceeding $1 trillion by 2029, a net 78 million jobs added by 2030, and AI contributing up to $15.7 trillion to global GDP. The figures below come from IDC, Gartner, WEF, IEA, PwC, McKinsey, Goldman Sachs and Menlo Ventures.

Why forecasts diverge

Top-line market-size estimates for AI vary widely — from Statista’s ~$1.2T total AI market in 2031 to PwC’s $15.7T economic impact by 2030 — because they measure different things. Some count software and services revenue; others include the productivity gains and consumer surplus. When comparing forecasts, the key is to match scope (revenue vs. economic impact), geography, and AI definition (all AI vs. generative AI only).

IDC’s AI infrastructure spending trajectory runs from $90B in Q4 2025 (quarterly) to $487B across full-year 2026 and past $1T by 2029. (Source: IDC)

Trends to watch (2026–2030)

Agentic AI in production. 23% of organizations are already scaling agents (McKinsey); Gartner expects 33% of enterprise apps to embed them by 2028 (from <1% in 2024), but also that 40%+ of agentic projects will be canceled by 2027 amid governance and ROI pressure. The value gap closes — unevenly: only 39% of organizations attribute EBIT impact to AI today. Infrastructure as bottleneck: energy, chips, and data-center capacity are the constraints; capex is projected at $600B+ in 2026 alone. Regulation in force: the EU AI Act becomes fully applicable in August 2026.

“A net 78 million jobs added, $1 trillion in infrastructure spend, and up to $15.7 trillion in GDP — the forecasters agree AI is the economic story of the decade.”

The numbers in full

Forecast	Figure	Source
AI infrastructure spending (2026)	$487B (~53% YoY)	IDC
AI infrastructure spending (2029)	>$1 trillion	IDC
Enterprise GenAI spend (2025)	$37B (3.2× YoY)	Menlo Ventures
AI agents in enterprise apps (2028)	33% (from <1% in 2024)	Gartner
Agentic AI projects canceled (by 2027)	40%+	Gartner
Net new jobs (by 2030)	+78M (170M / 92M)	WEF
Data-center electricity (2030, base)	~945 TWh	IEA
AI contribution to global GDP (2030)	up to $15.7T	PwC
Generative AI economic value (annual)	$2.6–4.4T (63 use cases)	McKinsey
Cloud revenues (2030)	~$2T, ~10–15% GenAI	Goldman Sachs

All figures are projections, attributed to their forecaster. Scope and definitions differ between sources — see sources below.

Frequently asked

How big will the AI market be by 2030?

Estimates vary by definition. IDC sees AI infrastructure spending alone exceeding $1 trillion by 2029. PwC estimates AI’s economic impact on global GDP at up to $15.7 trillion by 2030. McKinsey puts generative AI’s annual value at $2.6–4.4 trillion across 63 use cases. (IDC / PwC / McKinsey)

Will AI create or destroy more jobs?

The WEF projects a net positive: 170 million new roles versus 92 million displaced by 2030 (+78M), with 22% workforce churn. (WEF)

How much energy will AI use by 2030?

The IEA’s base case projects global data-center electricity at ~945 TWh by 2030 (just under 3% of global power), with AI-accelerated servers growing about 30% per year. (IEA)

Related: AI Investment & Funding 2026 · LLM Market Report 2026 · Compare year over year · Agentic AI